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### How to calculate Chance of Success in a turn-based battle with chance to hit and damage roll + damage modifier?

I started looking for a more deterministic way to compute this, without relying on Monte Carlo simulation, gathering statistics of a sample of randomized battles. It's a bit of a long road showing how ...
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I ended up calculating it as @Zibelas suggested: simulating 500 battles and then getting the percentage with this formula: \text{Probability} = \frac{\text{Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Number of ...