I try to find a success list among players for my project. I thought If I find the winning probability of players , it would give me the success list in group.
I would like to give an example to explain in a score table.
- Player A won Player B 2 times in 3 matches .
- Player C won Player B 1 time in a match.
- Player C won Player A 1 time in 4 matches.
My idea to find the winning probabilities:
p(Player X)=Total Winning number of Player X / Total Match Number
Thus we can calculate individual probabilities as above.
The success list shows that p(A)>p(C)>p(B)
If we get new player (Player D) and the new player gets a match with Player C. if Player D wins the match, we will get a new success list according to my formula above.
In last status: p(A)>p(C)>p(B)=p(D)
I do not feel that method is good enough because Player D won Player C but Player D is behind Player C. As a sense, I feel Player D must be more that Player C in the list.
And other disadvantages are
- if a player do not make match so often ,it can go down in the list. For example , if Player A do not make match for a while and Other players make matches, Player A will go down in the list even if he has good winning rate among users. I feel my method does not give exact player power
If a player in middle of the success list makes so much match with a weak player, The middle player will get top in the list even the player is not good enough.
Please let me know your ideas and solutions . Which methods can be used to define for better success list? How did you solve that issues in your game project while preparing a success list for death matches.