It's not exactly Pokemon, but I think I've got just the thing for you. There are a couple of Final Fantasy VII FAQs down at GameFAQs that might be useful for understanding how this sort of behavior might work. In particular:
The first one is probably the most interesting for you, because it presents (in pseudocode) the AI for every enemy in the game. For instance, here's part of the AI for one of the enemies (as you can see, it's a mix of scripting with random probabilities):
AI: Main
{
If (Stage == 0) Then
{
Choose Random Opponent
1/4 Chance: Use <Bodyblow> on Target
3/4 Chance: Nothing
} Else If (Stage == 1) Then {
Choose Random Opponent
1/6 Chance: Use Bubble on Target
1/6 Chance: Use <Bodyblow> on Target
1/3 Chance: Nothing
} Else If (Stage == 2) Then {
Choose Random Opponent
1/4 Chance: Use Bubble on Target
1/4 Chance: Use <Bodyblow> on Target
1/2 Chance: Nothing
} Else If (Stage == 3) Then {
Choose Random Opponent
1/2 Chance: Use Bubble on Target
1/2 Chance: Use <Bodyblow> on Target
} Else {
Choose Random Opponent
Use Bubble on Target
Choose Random Opponent
Use <Bodyblow> on Target
}
}
The second one is mostly about the formulas used in the game. Damage formulas, elemental weakness formulas, etc, which you might also be interested in. For instance:
Base Damage = Att + [(Att + Lvl) / 32] * [(Att * Lvl) / 32]
Damage = [(Power * (512 - Def) * Base Damage) / (16 * 512)]
If anything, I think at least these will serve as inspiration.